The International Air Transport Association (IATA), Airports Council International- Africa (ACI Africa) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Regional Offices for African States are united in their call to governments in Africa to rapidly implement ICAO’s global guidelines for restoring air connectivity to ensure the safe and harmonized restart of aviation in the region. These guidelines are contained in Takeoff: Guidance for Air Travel through the COVID-19 Public Health Crisis, which was approved by the ICAO Council. They have also been adopted into the African Union’s Restart and Recovery Strategies during and after COVID-19 for the African Aviation Sector.

“Developed based on the latest medical evidence and consistent with health best practices the ICAO Take-off guidance provides governments with a framework for restarting aviation while protecting public health. Governments in Africa are encouraged to implement the guidance urgently and in a harmonized and mutually recognized way to allow aviation to safely start contributing to Africa’s economic recovery post COVID-19. Air connectivity is critical to economic and sustainable development in and across the continent,” said Mr. Barry Kashambo, Regional Director, ESAF speaking on behalf of the ICAO Regional Offices accredited to African States.

“ICAO’s Take-off guidance is a global way forward for aviation. Implementation should give governments the confidence to open borders without quarantine, and passengers the confidence to fly. But guidelines mean nothing if they are not implemented. And that is our main message to governments in Africa. Deviations from the guidance and mandatory approaches, especially on quarantine and social distancing, will damage public confidence, make it harder to operate effectively, slow down the industry restart and increase the economic pressures already created by COVID-19. This would be harmful to public health and the economic recovery,” said Muhammad Albakri, IATA’s Regional Vice President for Africa and the Middle East.

“Safety and security remain the industry’s main priority, and both are firmly entrenched into every airport’s operations and corporate culture. Building on this track record, the ICAO Take-off guidance is fully aligned with our industry’s focus on passenger and staff wellbeing. We therefore urge African States to urgently adopt these guidelines so that we can ensure the implementation of consistent, harmonized and effective measures across the region, a prerequisite for passengers to return to air travel in all confidence, and for the swift restoration of air connectivity for the sustainable recovery of the travel, business and tourism sectors on the continent,” said Ali Tounsi Secretary General, ACI Africa.

COVID-19 has crippled the air transport industry in Africa. Demand is forecast to fall by 58.5% in 2020 year-on-year – the largest drop of all the regions. Airlines in the region are expected to post a net loss of $2 billion this year as passenger revenues decline by over $6 billion compared to the previous year. Concurrently, African airports are expected to lose 51% of their revenues in 2020, i.e., around $2.2 billion. Job losses in aviation and related industries in the region could reach 3.1 million and GDP supported by aviation could fall by $28 billion. Before the COVID-19 crisis, aviation supported 6.2 million jobs in the region and generated $55.8 billion in GDP.

 

The ICAO Guidance proposes a layered and phased approach to restarting aviation and identifies a set of generally applicable risk-based measures. In line with recommendations and guidance from public health authorities, these will mitigate the risk of transmission of the COVID-19 virus during the travel process.

Measures include:

•  Physical distancing to the extent feasible and implementation of “adequate risk-based measures where distancing is not feasible, for example in aircraft cabins”;
• Wearing of face coverings and masks by passengers and aviation workers;
• Routine sanitation and disinfection of all areas with potential for human contact and transmission;
• Health screening, which could include pre- and post-flight self-declarations, as well as temperature screening and visual observation, “conducted by health professionals”;
• Contact tracing for passengers and aviation employees: updated contact information should be requested as part of the health self-declaration, and interaction between passengers and governments should be made directly though government portals;
• Passenger health declaration forms, including self-declarations in line with the recommendations of relevant health authorities. Electronic tools should be encouraged to avoid paper;
• Testing: if and when real-time, rapid and reliable testing becomes available.

The organizations are also urging states to identify every opportunity where travel restrictions could be lifted, through bilateral or multilateral arrangements among countries – as soon as the epidemiological situation allows for it.

ICAO, IATA and ACI Africa also pledged their commitment to providing support to industry stakeholders in the region to help ensure implementation and compliance with the recommended ICAO Take-off guidance. This includes the development of more detailed operational procedures in four specific areas – Airport, Aircraft, Crew and Cargo – based on the Take-off guidance.

“Restarting international connectivity safely while ensuring that aviation is not a meaningful source for the spread of COVID-19 is not an option but a must. Aviation is facing the biggest challenge of its history; we need all hands-on deck to get the industry up and running again and we are committed to making the journey as seamless and risk-free as possible. We will collaborate with and support states to implement these guidelines in the fastest and most efficient way and encourage governments and other industry stakeholders to reach out to us for support,” said Albakri.

IATA, ACI Africa, ICAO, the African Union, African Civil Aviation Commission (AFCAC), Africa Airlines Association (AFRAA) Airlines Association of Southern Africa (AASA) and CANSO are working closely to support the safe restart of the industry in Africa.

IATA, ACI Africa and ICAO firmly believe that now is the time for all stakeholders of the aviation ecosystem to act in unity and work together towards a swift, efficient, harmonized and sustainable recovery of the African air transport industry.

The ICAO Council adopted a new report and recommendations today aimed at restarting the international air transport system and aligning its global recovery.

The COVID-19 report and guidelines were produced by the Council’s Aviation Recovery Task Force (CART). They were developed through broad-based consultations with countries and regional organizations, and with important advice from the World Health Organization and key aviation industry groups including the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Airports Council International (ACI World), the Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation (CANSO), and the International Coordinating Council of Aerospace Industries Associations (ICCAIA).

“The world looked to the ICAO Council to provide the high-level guidance which governments and industry needed to begin restarting international air transport and recovering from COVID-19,” underscored ICAO Council President Mr. Salvatore Sciacchitano.

“We have answered this call today with the delivery of this report, and with its recommendations and Take-Off guidelines which will now align public and private sector actions and mitigations as we get the world flying again, in full accordance with the latest and most prudent medical and traveller health advice available to us.”

CART Chairperson Ambassador Philippe Bertoux, the Representative of France to the ICAO Council, noted that the CART guidelines were intended to inform, align and progress the national, regional, and industry-specific COVID-19 recovery roadmaps now being implemented, but not to replace them.

“These guidelines will facilitate convergence, mutual recognition and harmonization of aviation COVID-19 related measures across the globe,” he emphasized. “They are intended to support the restart and recovery of global air travel in a safe, secure and sustainable way.”

“In order to be effective, we need to take a layered and especially a risk-based approach. Measures will be implemented or removed as needed based on the wide ranging medical and other factors which will be at play,” he said.

“Countries and operators need both autonomy and certainty as they take action to get the world flying again,” Bertoux continued, “and the CART guidelines are therefore designed to serve in both these capacities as a common reference, while remaining adaptable. This needs to be understood as a type of ‘living guidance’ which will be continuously updated based on latest risk assessments as we monitor progress and reconnect the world.”

The CART’s Report contains a detailed situational analysis and key principles supported by a series of recommendations focused around objectives for public health, aviation safety and security, and aviation economic recovery.

This content is supplemented by the report’s special ‘Take Off’ document which contains guidelines for public health risk mitigation measures and four separate modules relating to airports, aircraft, crew, and air cargo.

“The world needs aviation and aviation today is in great need of ICAO,” Council President Sciacchitano emphasized. “Global cooperation through this organization has helped countries to connect the world to their mutual benefit for over 75 years, and now it’s helping us to reconnect it. Solidarity among all countries and regions and industry sectors will be critical going forward, and ICAO is where we achieve that for global aviation.”

ICAO Secretary General Dr. Fang Liu also welcomed the CART’s accomplishment and highlighted that ICAO will continue to develop implementation packages to assist Member States to restart the operations and recovery. “Restoring public confidence in air travel has very broad benefits. This isn’t only about the operational and economic viability of the air transport sector, but of entire societies and regions having their economic livelihoods and stability restored”, she commented. The full CART Report is available as part of ICAO’s COVID-19 platform, and will be regularly reviewed and updated based on the latest data and information received from all stakeholders.

The coronavirus has taken a huge chunk from the aviation industry, and the prospect of an impending second wave paints a dark cloud in an already gloomy environment. For many of us, the return to normality is taking forever. 

For the airlines and airports, it is a tricky balance between generating much required revenue and adhering to the laid-out health regulations. On a bright note, experts agree that travel will indubitably rebound, though no model can accurately predict when.

From my telescopic lens as an aviation expert, I foresee a paradigm shift on existing pre-flight, in-flight and post-flight rituals when airports reopen.

True to Heraclitus’ quote, “nothing endures but change”, this pandemic has changed everything for everyone globally. Aviation industry players have different expectations as aircraft reignite their engines to soar back to the skies.

Since the coronavirus pandemic is ushering in a new era of air travel, it is time to prepare for what coming back to travel will actually look like. The post-Covid-19 travels will witness fundamental changes in the experience of air travel, depending on airports infrastructure, security protocols, airlines and government laid down procedures.

Previously passengers were required by their airlines to arrive at the airport one to three hours before flight departure. To facilitate obligatory checks, this requirement will change and range from four to six hours before flight departure. Passengers with special baggage may need to arrive earlier to oversee the repackaging procedures.

Full-body disinfection booths could become common, as could cleaning robots sprinkling anti-microbial spray and air steriliser to disinfect public spaces. Baggage will be sanitised and given a tag once the process is complete in what is dubbed as “sanitagging”.  

Passengers may need to show identification documents together with an immunity document or health certificate in a process similar to what some states do for yellow fever and polio ahead of travelling to their lands. Airlines may introduce mandatory pre-boarding temperature checks for all passengers.

Passengers will use individual mobile phones to check-in and to generate boarding passes as an alternative to check-in kiosks. Custom-designed plexiglass shields will be ubiquitous as they dot check-in desks, forex bureaus and open offices. 

The era of ever-crowded boarding queues has ended. Airlines will send short text messages to its passengers advising on the assigned boarding slots and they will consequently arrive sequentially using their allocated slot time.

The International Air Transport Association already recommends mandatory face coverings for both passengers and crew members. It is likely that the airlines will make wearing masks compulsory for passengers while on board.

Aircraft will employ the concept of “touchless cabin”. To keep clear of touching the seat-back screens, personal devices will dominate the inflight entertainment giving way to personalised inflight entertainment via the passenger’s own gadgets.

This disruptive technology accelerated by the pandemic will hit the last nail in the coffin of printed in-flight magazines. Your Kenya Airways’ Msafiri or South African Airways’ Sawubona may be extinct. The seat-back pockets, assumed to be among the most contaminated spots onboard planes, will ordinarily be empty.  

Concerns that the flight attendants could inadvertently pass the virus as they give out meals on board signifies the end of the trolley era. Consequently, passengers picking up their food before they board to limit the chance of a contact infection inflight will be a common sight during boarding.

Passengers may begin buying their meals at touchless vending machines before embarking on a flight. These vending machines will also most likely stock personal protective equipment like gloves and masks to cater for a business opportunity where travelling passengers need to refill their stock.

Unknown by many, travelling passengers have had the option of pre-ordering meals before travelling, but they have seldom maximised this opportunity. This may now become the norm. Some airlines have indicated that they will not be serving meals on flights of less than four hours.

Cabins will have an in-flight janitor cleaning surfaces and lavatories at regular intervals to ensure high standards of hygiene and sanitisation. Going to the lavatory will be in a systematic and sequential order preceded and succeeded by a thorough cleaning and sanitising exercise after each visit. 

Soon, the aviation industry will witness a new concept of flying involving flights within the city using urban air mobility, air taxis and drones for personal transport. This will be a concept of door-to-door seamless transportation where passengers use the same “vehicle” for the transportation on the ground and in the air.

My prediction is that the recovery period for the aviation industry will take years if not decades to rebound. Flying may become prohibitively expensive in the long term. The saving grace will be when airlines employ the strategy of lowering fares to stimulate demand and to mitigate the risk of low passenger numbers.

Since the operators need to shore up their balance sheets, governments and global institutions need to collaborate to save and stimulate the industry in the post-pandemic period to save jobs and keep the world connected.

Mr Thendu is an aviation expert with over two decades of experience in air navigation services provision

Source: https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001375128/what-flying-in-the-age-of-covid-19-might-look-like

 

Kenya’s travel agents have resolved to stop issuing credit facilities to their clients to sustain businesses in this time of crisis.

The radical decision, arrived at by lobby group, Kenya Association of Travel Agents (KATA) was informed by the losses incurred as a result of Covid-19 pandemic, which they say has greatly affected their cash-flow positions. 

Expected to be affected are corporates, government agencies, non-governmental organisations and traders who book for travel and pay over an extended period of time.

The policy will ensure that travel agents deal with cash paying clients, and therefore are able to remain operational in times of crisis as seen with the Covid-19 pandemic.  

“Travel post-pandemic needs to be on cash basis. Kata is working with TRA on setting up frameworks that will see travel agents paid on cash basis,” said Kata Board of Directors Treasurer Joseph Kithitu.

New normal

Kithitu said with no credit extended to travel agents, the new move would enable KATA members to align their businesses to deal with the new normal.

“We may not push as many volumes as before, but we will be able to remain operational even through such crisis,” he said. 

He said travel agents had undergone a traumatic period in the four months to June since the government instituted partial lockdown that restricted local and international travel as a way of mitigating the spread of the virus.

Many businesses, he added, have closed down and laid off staff because of nil bookings.

“All we can do now is chase after payment from government, corporates and our other clients,” he said, adding that  business had been hit harder as airlines were not refunding travel agents for travel that was already booked during the coronavirus period.

Source: https://www.pd.co.ke/business/economy-and-policy/tough-times-ahead-as-travel-agents-adopt-no-credit-policy-40975/#:~:text=Kenya’s%20travel%20agents%20have%20resolved,in%20this%20time%20of%20crisis.&text=The%20policy%20will%20ensure%20that,with%20the%20Covid%2D19%20pandemic.

 

Kenya Airways (KQ) plans to resume passenger flights as soon as the government lifts a travel ban that had been imposed on international flights on March 22, ending months of lost revenue due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The ban effectively cut off Kenya Airways’ flow of new revenues at a time it had no cash revenues.
It is expected that air travel will be fully operational by the third quarter of the year.
The airline sees the move as the best-case scenario but warns that the ultimate length of suspension of the flight business is still uncertain.
According to KQ in its latest report, “There is reasonable expectation that the flights could resume in the third quarter of the year with business expected to have started at very low capacity and a gradual ramp-up, influenced by the gradual lifting of travel bans, uncertain passenger confidence and health safety measures.”
Discussions with key industry stakeholders are going on in relation to a safe return to passenger routes, the airline says.
It is expected that KQ will be able to cover its variable costs on resumption.
“The resumption is expected to happen within the period of the moratoriums already being negotiated with lenders and lessors and thereby allowing the airline to grow back its revenue base and gradually cover its fixed costs,” says the airline.
The airline has been operating only cargo flights for essentials services such as medicine but it has not been enough to sustain business given that it was already a loss territory before the coronavirus pandemic.
KQ’s Chief Executive Officer Allan Kilavuka had unsuccessfully applied for a bailout from the National Treasury to help meet maintenance costs of grounded planes, salaries and settle utility bills like security, electricity and water.
President Uhuru Kenyatta on Saturday took a cautious approach to the pandemic, warning that relaxing measures such as curfews and containment of certain counties by just 20 percent would lead to 200,000 infections and 30,000 deaths by December.

Source; https://africa.cgtn.com/2020/06/15/kenya-airways-plans-to-resume-passenger-flights/

Authorities in the UAE last month said that people whose residency visas expired during the Covid-19 outbreak would be extended until the end of the year.

The decision was made to help residents and companies amid strict stay-home measures that were put in place to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

But as residents begin to leave the country on repatriation flights or others remain abroad, unable to return because flights have been grounded and borders closed, questions about visas and sponsorships remain.

People have been keen for more information about their residency status after authorities gave March 1, 2020 as a cut-off date for the visa changes.

Many residents, whose visas were cancelled, worry about overstay fines after they lost jobs because their companies cut back on staff due to the economic effect of the pandemic.

The National spoke to Haider Hussain, partner at Fragomen, an immigration services firm, to explain the current rules.

He said authorities have been proactive as they attempt to provide clarity where possible in a constantly evolving scenario due to the virus.

What happens if my visa expired between March and December?

Anyone whose residency visa expired between March and December will have it extended until December 31 automatically. This applies whether your residency visa expired in April or will expire in June or later. In UAE immigration records, the visa will be extended to December 2020.

What about people whose visa expired or was cancelled before March 1?

These residents can stay in the country for three months, beginning May 18, 2020, without incurring fines. This means they can remain until August 18 without paying visa overstay fines. If they find a new job and are sponsored by their employer, they will be issued a residency visa.

What happens to residents who have lost their jobs and their employers have cancelled their visa after March 1?

People whose visas were cancelled after March 1 have a 30-day grace period from the date of cancellation. They need to secure a new job to change their sponsorship or leave the UAE within a month or risk incurring fines. The overstay fines are Dh225 on the first day and Dh25 for each subsequent day.

One option is to file for a tourist visa. Although tourist visas remain suspended for people outside the UAE, people within the country can apply for a tourist visa to get immediate relief. This will give them an additional 90 days without being fined.

The in-country visit visa fee including immigration status change will cost about $435 (Dh1,598) for a 30-day short stay and about $530 (Dh1,946) for 90 days.

They can also apply for a seat on a repatriation flights that various countries are organising.

Employers are encouraged to be accommodating and companies are requested to show compassion by delaying or holding visa cancellations until restrictions on travel lift.

Authorities have also been lenient in some cases when companies or individuals request a waiver or reduction on fines. Companies and individuals are assessed on a case-by-case basis. In some instances, employers have covered fines to alleviate pressure on employees.

What happens to the visas for dependent family members or domestic workers?

The same rules apply to dependents.

Residency visas for dependents that expire between March 1 and December 31 will be renewed automatically until the year-end and this includes housemaids and domestic workers.

In case of cancellation, the dependents’ visa must be cancelled first and only then can an employee’s residence permit be cancelled. Dependents too have an option of securing a tourist visa or if the family breadwinner secures fresh employment and gets a new visa, the dependents also then can be sponsored.

Can dependent visas be put on hold and not cancelled?

If the person sponsoring others is changing jobs, they can put their dependents’ visas on hold rather than cancelling them. This freezes their status in the system and they cannot exit the country during that time. The sponsoring resident can then cancel their visa, get a new one and then remove the hold on the dependent’s visa. This is for dependents not sponsored by a company but sponsored by a spouse or resident.

The ‘hold’ process was suspended during the stay home restrictions since original documents needed to be submitted but the facility is available now since Amer centres have reopened.

Do you still need to get a medical test?

Regardless of category, for renewal or extension of visas, residents, domestic workers, employees do not require medical tests. It may be required if there is a new entrant into the country, an application would then need to be submitted.

What services are available online and when do you need to go to the Amer centre?

People can check the status of their residency on the Federal Authority for Identity and Citizenship website.

Processing for visas varies between emirates and several services are available online. You may need to visit an Amer centre if original documents must be submitted over the counter.

Several employers and companies have continued to apply online for new visas and for renewals of residence permits due to expire.

Instead of the residence permit being stamped on passports, people have received an electronic residence permit or an e-permit that is emailed.

At present, there is no clear indication of whether these electronic renewals must be re-endorsed on the passport with a visit to the Amer centre.

With offices moving to 100 per cent staffing this month, there will be a better understanding about whether all extension of visas will be via an e-sticker or if passport must be submitted for re-endorsement of residency permits.

Clarity on this will be important since it could have an impact on people who travel in and out of the UAE as flight services resume.

What happens if my visa is cancelled but I cannot leave the UAE because there are no flights available to my country?

The UAE authorities have been accommodating and supportive where possible depending on each case. Residents should also get in touch with embassies about any processes in place.

How do I check if my visa is valid?

Visit this website: https://smartservices.ica.gov.ae/echannels/web/client/default.html#/fileValidity

Alternatively, visit this website if you are a Dubai residence permit holder:

https://smart.gdrfad.gov.ae/Public_Th/StatusInquiry_New.aspx

 

Source: https://www.thenational.ae/uae/government/coronavirus-uae-residency-visa-processes-amid-covid-19-explained-1.1029130

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) introduced a free online interactive world map to provide travellers with the latest COVID-19 entry regulations by country. The map relies on IATA’s Timatic database which contains comprehensive information on documentation required for international travel. To keep pace with the dynamic situation with respect to COVID-19, Timatic is updated more than 200 times per day to provide accurate travel restrictions specific to the current pandemic, based on one’s citizenship and country of residence.

‘’As the aviation industry prepares to safely restart, travellers will need to know which countries’ borders are open and what health restrictions exist. Travelers can rely on Timatic for comprehensive and accurate information on travel during the pandemic,’’ said Anish Chand, IATA’s Assistant Director, Timatic.

In a recent survey commissioned by IATA regarding concerns people had about air travel post-crisis, more than 80% of travellers said they are as concerned about potential quarantine restrictions as they are about actually catching the virus during travel.  With the uncertainties and quickly changing health restrictions from one country to the next during the pandemic, this new resource for travel planning is timely and important.

‘’We support the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) guidelines to harmonize the measures to keep people safe while traveling and provide the confidence to open borders without quarantine measures. And this Timatic offering will be a vital tool for travellers who need easy access to accurate information on entry requirements,” said Chand.

 

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its financial outlook for the global air transport industry showing that airlines are expected to lose $84.3 billion in 2020 for a net profit margin of -20.1%. Revenues will fall 50% to $419 billion from $838 billion in 2019. In 2021, losses are expected to be cut to $15.8 billion as revenues rise to $598 billion.

“Financially, 2020 will go down as the worst year in the history of aviation. On average, every day of this year will add $230 million to industry losses. In total that’s a loss of $84.3 billion. It means that—based on an estimate of 2.2 billion passengers this year—airlines will lose $37.54 per passenger. That’s why government financial relief was and remains crucial as airlines burn through cash,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

“Provided there is not a second and more damaging wave of COVID-19, the worst of the collapse in traffic is likely behind us. A key to the recovery is universal implementation of the re-start measures agreed through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to keep passengers and crew safe. And, with the help of effective contact tracing, these measures should give governments the confidence to open borders without quarantine measures. That’s an important part of the economic recovery because about 10% of the world’s GDP is from tourism and much of that depends on air travel. Getting people safely flying again will be a powerful economic boost,” said de Juniac.

2020 Main Forecast Drivers:

Passenger demand evaporated as international borders closed and countries locked down to prevent the spread of the virus. This is the biggest driver of industry losses. At the low point in April, global air travel was roughly 95% below 2019 levels. There are indications that traffic is slowly improving. Nonetheless, traffic levels (in Revenue Passenger Kilometre) for 2020 are expected to fall by 54.7% compared to 2019. Passenger numbers will roughly halve to 2.25 billion, approximately equal to 2006 levels. Capacity, however, cannot be adjusted quickly enough with a 40.4% decline expected for the year.

Passenger revenues are expected to fall to $241 billion (down from $612 billion in 2019). This is greater than the fall in demand, reflecting an expected 18% fall in passenger yields as airlines try to encourage people to fly again through price stimulation. Load factors are expected to average 62.7% for 2020, some 20 percentage points below the record high of 82.5% achieved in 2019.

Costs are not falling as fast as demand. Total expenses of $517 billion are 34.9% below 2019 levels but revenues will see a 50% drop. Non-fuel unit costs will rise sharply by 14.1%, as fixed costs are spread over fewer passengers. Lower utilization of aircraft and seats as a result of restrictions will also add to rising costs.  

Fuel prices offer some relief. In 2019 jet fuel averaged $77/barrel whereas the forecast average for 2020 is $36.8. Fuel is expected to account for 15% of overall costs (compared to 23.7% in 2019).

Cargo is the one bright spot. Compared to 2019, overall freight tonnes carried are expected to drop by 10.3 million tonnes to 51 million tonnes. However, a severe shortage in cargo capacity due to the unavailability of belly cargo on (grounded) passenger aircraft is expected to push rates up by some 30% for the year. Cargo revenues will reach a near-record $110.8 billion in 2020 (up from $102.4 billion in 2019). As a portion of industry revenues, cargo will contribute approximately 26%–up from 12% in 2019.

2020 Regional Performance

All regions will post losses in 2020. The crisis has taken on a similar dimension in all parts of the world with capacity cuts lagging about 10-15 percentage points or more behind the over-50% fall in demand.

 

REGION	PASSENGER DEMAND (RPKS)	PASSENGER CAPACITY (ASKS)		NET PROFIT		REMARKS
Global	-54.7%		-40.4%		-$84.3b
North America	-52.6%		​-35.2%		-$23.1b	North America’s large domestic markets and financial support to US carriers under the CARES Act are expected to play a key role in the recovery.
Europe	-56.4%		​-42.9%		-$21.5b	The progressive opening of intra-European travel has the potential to boost the recovery, provided onerous quarantine measures are avoided. Strings attached to government relief packages, particularly for environmental purposes, will need to be carefully managed to avoid unintended consequences such as damaged competitiveness.
Asia Pacific	-53.8%		​-39.2%		-$29.0b	Asia-Pacific was the first region to feel the brunt of the COVID-19 crisis. It is expected to post the largest absolute losses in 2020.
Middle East	-56.1%		​-46.1%		-$4.8b	Lower oil prices will add extra pressure to a difficult economic situation within the region. The recovery for the region’s super connectors could be delayed with the expected phasing of the re-start with domestic and regional followed by long-haul international routes.
Latin America	​​-57.4%		​-43.3%		-$4.0b	Latin America entered the crisis with a delay. The region’s governments have implemented some of the most draconian measures in terms of border closures which could both delay and slow down the recovery.
Africa	-58.5%		​-50.4%		-$2.0b	The course of the virus in this region is yet to be fully seen. Nonetheless, border closures have all but stopped flights. International donors will be needed to supplement the limited means for the region’s governments to provide relief packages.

Reduced Losses in 2021

With open borders and rising demand in 2021, the industry is expected to cut its losses to $15.8 billion for a net profit margin of -2.6%. Airlines will be in recovery mode but still well below pre-crisis levels (2019) on many performance measures:

• Total passenger numbers are expected to rebound to 3.38 billion (roughly 2014 levels when there were 3.33 billion travellers), which is well below the 4.54 billion travellers in 2019.
• Overall revenues are expected to be $598 billion which would be a 42% improvement in 2020, but still 29% below 2019’s $838 billion.
• Unit costs are expected to fall as fixed costs are spread across more passengers than in 2020. But the continued virus control measures will limit the gains by reducing aircraft utilization rates.
• Cargo’s enlarged footprint in the air transport industry will remain. Cargo revenues will reach a record $138 billion (a 25% increase on 2020). That is about 23% of total industry revenues, roughly double its historical share. Air cargo demand is expected to be strong as businesses restock at the start of the economic upturn, while a slow return of the passenger fleet will limit the growth of cargo capacity, and keep cargo yields steady at 2020 levels.
• Jet fuel prices are expected to rise to an average of $51.8 per barrel for the year, as global economic activity and oil demand rises. While that will add some cost pressure on airlines, the price per barrel is similar to 2016 ($52.1) and will still be the lowest since 2004 ($49.7).

“Airlines will still be financially fragile in 2021. Passenger revenues will be more than one-third smaller than in 2019. And airlines are expected to lose about $5 for every passenger carried. The cut in losses will come from re-opened borders leading to increased volumes of travellers. Strong cargo operations and comparatively low fuel prices will also give the industry a boost. Competition among airlines will no doubt be even more intense. That will translate into strong incentives for travellers to take to the skies again. The challenge for 2022 will be turning reduced losses of 2021 into the profits that airlines will need to pay off their debts from this terrible crisis,” said de Juniac.

A Challenging Recovery

Although losses will be significantly reduced in 2021 from 2020 levels, the industry’s recovery is expected to be long and challenging. Some factors include:

• Debt Levels: Airlines entered 2020 in relatively good financial shape. After a decade of profits, debt levels were relatively low ($430 billion, roughly half annual revenues). Vital financial relief measures by governments have kept airlines from going bankrupt but have ballooned debt by $120 billion to $550 billion which is about 92% of expected revenues in 2021. Further relief measures should be focused on helping airlines to generate more working capital and stimulating demand rather than further expanding debt.
• Operational efficiencies: The global measures agreed for the industry re-start, for the period that they are implemented, will significantly change operational parameters. For example, physical distancing during embarkation/disembarking, more deep cleaning, and increased cabin check will all add time to operations which will decrease overall aircraft utilization.
• Recession: The depth and duration of the recession to come will significantly impact business and consumer confidence. Pent-up demand is likely to drive an initial uptick in travel numbers but sustaining that is likely to require price stimulus and that will put pressure on profits.
• Confidence: Travel patterns are likely to shift. The gradual opening up of air travel is likely to be progressive, starting with domestic markets, followed by regional and, lastly, international. Research suggests that some 60% of travellers will be eager to recommence travel within a few months of the pandemic coming under control. The same research also indicates that an even greater percentage of potential travellers until their personal financial situation stabilizes (69%) or if quarantine measures are in place (over 80%).

 “People will want to fly again, provided they have confidence in their personal financial situation and the measures taken to keep travellers safe. There is no tried and true playbook for a recovery from COVID-19 but the ICAO Take-off re-start plan outlines globally harmonized measures agreed by health and industry experts. It is important that the industry and governments follow it so that travellers will have the maximum reassurance about their safety. That will be a good start. And depending on how the pandemic evolves, knowledge of the virus deepens, or science improves, industry and governments will be better prepared for a globally coordinated response. That includes the potential removal of measures when it is safe. That will give airlines some breathing room to rebuild demand and repair damaged balance sheets,” said de Juniac.

 

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has published an interactive map detailing individual country’s Covid-19 entry regulations.

The map uses IATA’s Timatic database, which contains comprehensive information on documentation required for international travel.

The Association says that the database is currently being updated over 200 times per day “to provide accurate travel restrictions specific to the current pandemic, based on one’s citizenship and country of residence”.

In addition, travellers can subscribe to real time notifications for all travel updates related to the pandemic, again powered by the Timatic database.

The release follows a recent IATA survey which showed that over 80 per cent of travellers were “as concerned about potential quarantine restrictions as they are about actually catching the virus during travel”.

Commenting on the news Anish Chand, IATA’s Assistant Director, Timatic, said:

‘’As the aviation industry prepares to safely restart, travellers will need to know which countries’ borders are open and what health restrictions exist. Travellers can rely on Timatic for comprehensive and accurate information on travel during the pandemic.

‘’We support the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) guidelines to harmonize the measures to keep people safe while traveling and provide the confidence to open borders without quarantine measures. And this Timatic offering will be a vital tool for travellers who need easy access to accurate information on entry requirements.”

 

Source: https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2020/06/11/iata-publishes-covid-19-entry-regulations-map/