For the second consecutive week, no destinations were added to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s “high” risk category for travel. A few destinations moved down a risk level, including Kenya, which is now in the “low” risk category.

Kenya was previously listed at Level 2, along with the West African nation of Togo, which also moved down to the Level 1, or “low” risk, category of the CDC’s regularly updated travel notices.

The British Overseas Territory of Montserrat in the Caribbean dropped into Level 2, or “moderate” risk for Covid-19, from Level 3.

One nation, Timor-Leste in southeast Asia, moved up one rung to Level 2.

And one destination, Dutch Sint Maarten in the Caribbean dropped into the “unknown” category from Level 3. Destinations move to that category when there is a lack of information.

More than half of the destinations monitored by the CDC are still listed in the Level 3, “high” risk category..

Level 3 became the top rung in terms of risk level in April after the CDC overhauled its ratings system for assessing Covid-19 risk for travelers.

The designation applies to places that have had more than 100 cases per 100,000 residents in the past 28 days.

Destinations carrying the “Level 2: Covid-19 Moderate” designation reported 50 to 100 Covid-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the past 28 days.

To be listed as “Level 1: Covid-19 Low,” a destination must have had 49 or fewer new cases per 100,000 residents over the past 28 days.

Level 4, previously the highest risk category, is now reserved only for special circumstances, such as extremely high case counts, emergence of a new variant of concern or health care infrastructure collapse. The CDC advises against traveling to these destinations. Under the new system, no destinations have been placed at Level 4 so far.

You can view the CDC’s risk levels for any global destination on the agency’s travel recommendations page.

A medical expert weighs in on risk levels

The CDC advises travelers to get up to date with Covid-19 vaccines before traveling internationally. Being “up to date” means you have had not only the full initial vaccinations but any boosters for which you’re eligible.

We’re in “a phase in the pandemic where people need to make their own decisions based on their medical circumstances as well as their risk tolerance when it comes to contracting Covid-19,” according to CNN Medical Analyst Dr. Leana Wen.

Vaccination is the most significant safety factor for travel, said Wen, who is an emergency physician and professor of health policy and management at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health.

“Most people who are up-to-date on their vaccines are highly protected from becoming severely ill,” she said.

Consider what you would do if you end up testing positive away from home, Wen advised.

“Do you have access to treatments such as antiviral pills or monoclonal antibodies? Ask your doctor in advance of your trip whether you are eligible, then know where to find these treatments when traveling abroad,” she said.

Wen also advises packing extra coronavirus tests and bringing them with you on your trip.

While US-bound travelers no longer have to present a negative Covid-19 test to get home from international destinations, the CDC still advises testing before boarding flights back to the States and not traveling if you are sick.

“Of course, if people have symptoms or exposure while traveling, they need to get tested, and if they test positive, to follow CDC’s isolation guidelines,” Wen told CNN Travel.

If you’re concerned about a travel-specific health situation not related to Covid-19, check here.

Source: CNN Travel

The thundering sound of hoofbeats charging toward the end of the track was met with a chorus of cheers from thousands of revellers in cowboy hats and jeans, dazzled by the colorful lights of the midway in the distance.

The Calgary Stampede attracted 500,000 visitors in 2021 after a year of pandemic isolation and uncertainty, epitomizing Alberta Premier Jason Kenney’s “best summer ever.”

Kenney beamed from behind a podium that spring as he declared that Alberta had “crushed” the spike of COVID-19 infections and heralded the return of backyard barbecues, dream weddings, concerts, parties and, of course, the stampede.

“Today we are truly near the end of this thing. We’re leaving the darkest days of the pandemic behind and walking into the warm light of summer,” Kenney declared.

Months after what came to be known as Kenney’s “mission accomplished” moment, Alberta was pummelled by the Delta wave. The province’s intensive care units were devastated.

The moment left a lasting impression on the country’s political psyche.

Such a jubilant, if premature, declaration is not likely to be seen again in Canada’s COVID-19 response, even as other world leaders appear ready to leave the pandemic behind.

“The pandemic is over,” U.S. President Joe Biden said last week, striding down the blue carpet of the Detroit Auto Show in Michigan during an interview with “60 Minutes.”

The president said there is still work to be done but suggested the disaster had passed.

“No one’s wearing masks, everyone seems to be in pretty good shape and so I think it’s changing.”

Canada‘s cautious political message about the virus has never ceded to such optimism.

“What we have seen consistently is that people are still struggling in hospitals across our country with the impacts of COVID,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Thursday at a press conference at the UN General Assembly in New York.

He encouraged people to get up to date on their vaccine booster doses, assuring the public “we will make sure this pandemic gets behind us as quickly as we possibly can.”

Two senior government sources, speaking on the condition they not be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly, told The Canadian Press that Trudeau has agreed in principle to let Canada’s vaccine mandates expire on Sept. 30.

When the order expires, the ArriveCan app will no longer be mandatory for international travellers, either.

The decision to put an end to some of the last vestiges of federal COVID-19 restrictions is expected to be announced officially on Monday.

Trudeau has yet to speak publicly about the change, but the tenor of that announcement could be telling as to how the federal government plans to navigate this new transitional phase of the pandemic.

The last time the Liberals loosened restrictions in June, removing vaccine mandates for domestic travellers, the tone was decidedly circumspect.

Rather than proclaim the mandates were no longer needed, federal officials said they were merely “suspended,” and warned they would “bring back” necessary policies if there’s a resurgence of the virus in the fall.

“I think part of the restraint that provincial and territorial governments and the federal government have, as far as walking past COVID, is because we have our memory of how that didn’t actually work out well,” said Dr. Alika Lafontaine, president of The Canadian Medical Association.

Of course, Alberta’s cautionary tale isn’t the only reason for the federal government’s political COVID-19 message.

“In Canada, our focus has been, every step of the way, on listening to science, to responding to the facts on the ground,” Trudeau said Thursday, repeating a similar message when questioned by reporters in Ottawa Friday.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, allege the Liberals are more focused on “political science.”

“There’s a lot of questions that Canadians have, why the government appears to be making decisions not based on medical science, but based on political calculations,” Conservative health critic Michael Barrett said last week.

The official opposition has accused the Liberals of using the pandemic and federal restrictions as a political wedge since the last election, when Trudeau first floated the idea of vaccine mandates.

“There’s no question of whether politics plays a role in the decision-making,” said Julianne Piper, a research fellow with the international Pandemics and Borders project at Simon Fraser University.

“I think there are different political, geographic, public health factors that play into those decisions.”

That alchemy of politics and public health has the potential to set the tone for the rest of the country, she said.

“I think it signals the general feelings around the pandemic and potentially signals what different actors who would be impacted are going to expect,” she said.

Lafontaine said it will be important for politicians to keep that in mind during this next phase of the pandemic.

“I think it’s really important for politicians to realize that the things they say have an enormous impact,” he said.

“We need, more than ever, for people to be clear about the problems that we’re facing, to declare crises when there are crises and to talk about plans for after crises when it’s time to walk through those problems, into what comes next.”

Source: Global News

The European Union will no longer require masks to be worn at airports and on planes starting next week amid the easing of coronavirus restrictions across the bloc, authorities said Wednesday.

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency said it hoped the joint decision, made with the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, would mark “a big step forward in the normalization of air travel” for passengers and crews.

The new guideline “takes account of the latest developments in the pandemic, in particular the levels of vaccination and naturally acquired immunity, and the accompanying lifting of restrictions in a growing number of European countries,” the two agencies said in a joint statement.

“Passengers should however behave responsibly and respect the choices of others around them,” EASA Executive Director Patrick Ky said. “And a passenger who is coughing and sneezing should strongly consider wearing a face mask, for the reassurance of those seated nearby.”

While the new recommendations take effect on May 16, rules for masks may still vary by airline beyond that date if they fly to or from destinations where the rules are different.

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control director Andrea Ammon said washing hands and social distancing should still be practiced, but airport operators are advised not to impose distancing requirements if these are likely to lead to a bottleneck.

The agencies also recommended that airlines keep systems for collecting passenger locator information on standby in case they are needed in future, for example if a new dangerous variant emerges.

The requirement to wear masks on planes has been in place for about two years. It has occasionally led to disputes between passengers and airlines. German carrier Lufthansa last week denied a large group of Jewish travelers board a plane because some had refused to wear masks. The airline has since apologized for the incident.

The decline in reported COVID-19 cases over the past weeks has prompted countries across Europe to roll back pandemic-related restrictions.

The German government said Wednesday that it was disbanding a crisis task force appointed to lead the official response.

The French government announced separately Wednesday that people will no longer have to wear face masks in any forms of public transport starting from Monday.

Health Minister Olivier Veran, speaking after a Cabinet meeting, said that the decision is part of policies to lift most restrictions as the pandemic is slowing down in the country.

French authorities reported this week about 39,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 each day on average, down by 30% compared to last week. The numbers of patients in hospitals have also been steadily decreasing in recent weeks.

Wearing face masks will no longer be needed in metros, bus, trains and domestic flights. It is still be requested in hospitals and nursing homes, Veran said.

France lifted most coronavirus restrictions in March.

Source: USA Today

Demand for air travel to, from and within Africa is being challenged by low vaccination rates across the continent as well as impacts from rising inflation, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has said.

Africa accounts for 1.9% of the total global passenger air travel market.

The global aviation body’s latest data shows that the passenger load factor for African airlines on international flights increased by 14.1 percentage points to 64.5% in March 2022 compared to March 2021. Available seat capacity on international flights was up 49.9% in March 2022 compared to March 2021. 

The combined domestic and international passenger load factor rose 11 percentage points to 65.7% in March 2022 compared to March 2021.

During March 2022, African airlines saw cargo volumes increase by 3.1% in March 2022 compared to March 2021. Their cargo carrying capacity was 8.7% above March 2021 levels.

“Air cargo markets mirror global economic developments. In March, the trading environment took a turn for the worse. The combination of war in Ukraine and the spread of the Omicron variant in Asia have led to rising energy costs, exacerbated supply chain disruptions, and fed inflationary pressure. As a result, compared to a year ago, there are fewer goods being shipped—including by air,” explained IATA Director General Willie Walsh in a statement.

Source: Fin24

After months of warning all travelers to avoid a long list of countries because of “very high” COVID-19 levels, the CDC has removed all countries from its “Do Not Travel” list. 

The federal agency on Monday removed 89 countries from its “Do Not Travel” list. The highest Level 4 designation will now be reserved for “special circumstances” reflecting a dangerous spike in COVID-19 cases, a new variant or health care infrastructure collapse.

While the Level 4 list had at one point included well over 100 destinations, now there are no Level 4 countries.

Level 1, Level 2 and Level 3 classifications continue to be based on a 28-day incidence or case counts.

Countries with a “high level of COVID-19” are considered Level 3. Travelers who are not fully vaccinated are still advised to avoid travel to these destinations, but the warning does not apply to fully vaccinated visitors. Travelers with weakened immune systems are urged to check with doctors before visiting. 

The CDC classifies countries with “moderate” COVID-19 levels into Level 2 and “low” COVID-19 levels into Level 1. Travelers should make sure they are up to date with their COVID-19 vaccines before traveling to these destinations, according to the CDC. 

The agency said the new travel advisory system is meant to be “a more actionable alert” for travelers that helps them understand “when the highest level of concern is most urgent.” 

The update comes less than a week after the CDC confirmed it would extend the federal mask mandate on airplanes and other public transportation through May 3. That decision, however, was challenged Monday when a federal judge in Florida voided the mandate.

The State Department also said it would also adjust its travel advisories and will no longer automatically correlate its guidance with the CDC’s travel health notice level. But if the CDC moves a destination to Level 4 because of COVID-19 risk, the State Department’s travel advisory for that destination will also raise to Level 4.  

The update leaves about 10% of all travel advisories at Level 4. The State Department advises against travel for a number of risks, not just COVID-19.  

Source: USA Today

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention has lifted its risk advisory for cruise ship travel Wednesday following two years of issuing warnings to travelers about the possibility of contracting COVID-19 onboard a cruise.

In an update posted online, the agency removed its “Cruise Ship Travel Health Notice,” a notice that recommended individuals against traveling onboard cruise ships. Three months ago, the CDC increased its travel warnings for cruises to Level 4 — the highest level — following investigations of ships that had COVID outbreaks.

While the CDC has lifted its travel health notice, officials say it’s up to the passengers to determine their own health risks before going onboard a cruise ship.

“While cruising will always pose some risk of COVID-19 transmission, travelers will make their own risk assessment when choosing to travel on a cruise ship, much like they do in all other travel settings,” the agency said in a statement to NPR.

The agency says it will continue to provide guidance to the cruise ship industry in order for cruise lines to operate in a way that will provide “safer and healthier” environments for crews, passengers and communities.

News of the CDC’s decision to remove its travel health notice was praised by the Cruise Lines International Association, the industry’s largest trade organization.

“Today’s decision by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to altogether remove the Travel Health Notice for cruising recognizes the effective public health measures in place on cruise ships and begins to level the playing field, between cruise and similarly situated venues on land, for the first time since March 2020.

From the onset of the pandemic, CLIA’s cruise line members have prioritized the health and safety of their guests, crew, and the communities they visit and are sailing today with health measures in place that are unmatched by virtually any other commercial setting.”

The CDC emphasizes that travelers should make sure they’re up to date with their COVID-19 vaccines before taking a cruise, in addition to following their ship’s requirements and recommendations against the virus.

Travelers are urged to check their cruise ship’s COVID case levels and vaccination requirements online before traveling, the agency says.

Source: NPR

The US has eased travel restrictions on Kenya in the wake of declining cases of Covid-19, offering a boost to the East African nation’s recovering tourism sector.

Kenya has been moved to level one from level three, which requires US citizens to avoid all non-essential travel to a destination and reconsider any planned travel.

The downgrade to level one is set to boost summer bookings from a country that accounted for the largest share of foreign visitors to Kenya last year at 136,981.

Kenya’s tourism industry has started to pull out of its deep Covid-19-induced slump as local travellers take advantage of lower prices, but foreign visitor numbers are still well below pre-pandemic levels.

The US’s latest advisory follows a sharp decline in infections and hospital admissions in recent weeks, which made the Kenyan government to relax coronavirus restrictions, lifting requirements for compulsory wearing of face masks in open places and ending quarantine measures.

“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued a Level 1 Travel Health Notice for Kenya, indicating a low level of Covid-19 in the country,” says the US embassy in Nairobi. “Your risk of contracting Covid-19 and developing severe symptoms may be lower if you are fully vaccinated with an FDA authorised vaccine.”

Kenya’s positivity rate — the proportion of tests coming back positive — stood at 0.3 percent on Monday compared to a peak of 37.6 percent on December 27.

The lower infection rates come on the back of increased inoculation against Covid-19, with 7.93 million Kenyans fully vaccinated, up from 3.93 million on December 27.

Kenya’s tourism is expected to record increased numbers in the next two months as visitors from western countries troop in for summer holidays. Kenya expects tourism, typically one of its top sources of foreign exchange, to earn Sh173 billion this year, up 18.5 percent from last year, the government said.

Earnings slumped to Sh88.6 billion in 2020 as governments around the world restricted the movement of people, including through the closure of airspaces, to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

They bounced back to Sh146 billion last year, with the number of hotel nights occupied by Kenyan travellers doubling during the period.

Local resorts, which normally concentrate their marketing efforts on foreign tourists, were forced to turn to the domestic market by the pandemic, offering cut rates to entice holidaymakers.

Foreign visitor numbers were still sharply lower than pre-pandemic levels, at just under 870,500 last year against two million in 2019. They are forecast to reach 1.03 million this year.

The drop in earnings in the sector from foreign tourists has contributed to a sharp fall in the local currency, which is trading at all-time lows against the dollar.

Source: Daily Nation

China has placed about 17 million residents under lockdown, as virus cases doubled nationwide to nearly 3,400 and anxiety mounted over the resilience of its ‘zero-Covid’ approach in the face of the worst outbreak in two years.

The southern tech hub of Shenzhen – home to about 13 million people – told all residents to stay at home as it struggles to eradicate an Omicron flare-up linked to the neighbouring virus-ravaged city of Hong Kong.

The lockdown and a suspension of public transport will last until March 20, a city government notice said, adding that it would launch three rounds of mass testing.

A nationwide surge in cases has seen authorities close schools in Shanghai, China’s biggest city, and lock down northeastern cities, as almost 18 provinces battle clusters of the Omicron and Delta variants.

The city of Jilin – centre of the outbreak in the northeast – was partially locked down on Saturday, while residents of Yanji, an urban area of nearly 700,000 bordering North Korea, were confined to their homes on Sunday.

China, where the virus was first detected in late 2019, has maintained a strict “zero-COVID” policy, enforced by swift lockdowns, travel restrictions and mass testing when clusters have emerged.

But the latest flare-up, driven by the highly transmissible Omicron variant and a spike in asymptomatic cases, is testing the efficacy of that approach.

Zhang Yan, a Jilin health commission official, conceded that the response from local authorities had been lacking.

“The emergency response mechanism in some areas is not robust enough,” he said at a press briefing on Sunday.

“There is insufficient understanding of the characteristics of the Omicron variant … and judgement has been inaccurate.”

Residents of Jilin have completed six rounds of mass testing, with the city reporting more than 2,200 cases of the Omicron variant since Saturday.

The neighbouring city of Changchun – an industrial base of nine million people – was locked down on Friday, while at least three other small cities have been locked down since March 1.

The mayor of Jilin and the head of the Changchun health commission were dismissed from their jobs on Saturday, state media reported, in a sign of the political imperative placed on local authorities to contain virus clusters.

COVID-zero?

But the strain is showing, with officials increasingly urging softer and more targeted measures to contain the virus, while economists warn tough clampdowns are hurting the economy.

Shenzhen residents have been anxious over a renewed outbreak and angst at the swift, draconian measures to squash clusters.

“It’s the worst since 2020,” a Shenzhen resident surnamed Zhang told the AFP news agency. “The closures are too sudden. My friend woke up in the morning to find her building was sealed overnight without warning. Her boss had to mail her laptop to her.”

The Shenzhen subdistrict of Futian which was locked down on Sunday is home to 300,000 people and a thriving commercial district. It shares a land border crossing with Hong Kong, where the caseload over recent weeks has soared, alarming officials in Beijing.

Hong Kong currently has one of the world’s highest death rates from the virus, as the Omicron variant cuts through its elderly population among whom vaccine hesitancy proliferates.

In Shanghai, authorities have temporarily locked down individual schools, businesses, restaurants and malls over close-contact fears rather than using mass quarantines.

Authorities advised residents not to leave the city unless necessary and tourist attractions started requiring visitors to provide negative COVID tests.

“I have friends who I hung out with a few days ago but were suddenly quarantined recently,” Shanghai resident Serena Li told AFP.

The government’s approach will “protect citizens”, she said, adding: “In the long run, it’s good.”

Long lines were seen outside hospitals on Sunday as people rushed to get tested.

“There’s no other way. We definitely have to do what the government has arranged,” said a data analytics worker surnamed Zhang.

As cases rise, the country’s National Health Commission announced on Friday that it would make rapid antigen tests available for citizens to buy online or from clinics for “self-testing”.

Although nucleic acid tests will continue to be the main method of testing, the move suggests China may be anticipating that official efforts will not be able to contain the virus.

Last week, a top Chinese scientist said the country should aim to co-exist with COVID, like other nations where Omicron has spread like wildfire.

Source: Al Jazeera

African airlines are dusting off plans for operations in a post-pandemic market even as the continent faces mixed prospects in global air traffic recovery. IATA, the International Air Transport Association, predicts a firm path to resumption of global air travel, with passenger numbers expected to surpass the 2019 peak in 2024.

The bullish outlook is informed by the easing of travel restrictions in key markets as Covid-19 vaccinations reach optimal levels and infection rates recede.

Across the globe, airlines posted strong performance in January 2022, with Europe leading the pack and Africa also looking up. Improvements in the major North Atlantic and intra-European markets, are the backbone for recovery with Asia-Pacific’s recovery expected to continue to lag because China, the region’s largest market, continues to cling to restrictive border controls.

Meanwhile, a sudden spike in fuel prices means airlines will lose more than the $11 billion that IATA had predicted for 2022.

Planning operations

Airlines are either buying aircraft, hiring new personnel or adjusting schedules to shift capacity to markets that are opening up faster and cutting back or putting on hold planned route launches to restricted destinations.

For instance, this week, Ethiopian, Africa’s largest airline, placed an order for five brand-new Boeing 777-8 dedicated freighters, becoming the type’s launch customer on the continent.

After several episodes of start and stop, Nigeria says it will finally relaunch its revamped flag carrier next year.

According to the African Airlines Association (AFRAA), four airlines continued with their route development plans during 2021 while another 11 either reopened existing routes or launched new ones. At the end of January 2022, airlines in the region had reinstated 78.7 percent of their pre-Covid capacity.

Uganda Airlines which last year launched new services to Johannesburg and Dubai, is hiring staff for its London office ahead of a much-anticipated commencement of services to the UK. Kenya Airways this week announced a network review that will see its London service revert to daily while Yaoundé will cease operating at the end of May.

Kenya Airways has also indefinitely postponed the launch of a planned service to Milan, citing weak market conditions in the Italian market. Further south, South African Airways is spooling up for a return to the market after coming out of restructuring.

IATA sees passenger traffic bouncing past pre-pandemic levels, to reach four million travellers in 2024 – three percent higher than the last peak achieved in 2019. But it will not be until 2025 that African airlines hit a similar milestone.

Key drivers that would have supported Africa’s recovery are missing. Although 34 countries, who between them account for 80 percent of African traffic, have signed up to the Single African Air Transport Market SAATM, the initiative has not gotten off the ground.

Receding infection rates

The airline lobby’s optimism is shared by Airbus and Boeing, the world’s major commercial aircraft manufacturers, who are also sticking to their planned production rate increases.

According to, intra-African demand remained weak at just 31.3 percent while Intercontinental travel was struggling at 23.5 percent.

Despite some easing, governments largely maintained coronavirus controls. For instance, while Uganda removed the requirement for its controversial test on arrival, travellers are required to present a negative Covid certificate taken 72 hours prior to departure, on both the outbound and inbound legs.

While vaccinated passengers can travel to Mauritius without being subjected to a pre-departure test, they are required to take one on arrival and a second one on day five of their stay.

Subject to fewer restrictions, the domestic sector is expected to lead the recovery with regions that have a significant domestic sector benefitting more.

In its latest update, IATA says the pace of recovery slowed in both the domestic and international segments during January 2022 relative to December 2021 as governments tightened travel restrictions in response to the emergence of the Omicron variant last November.

But Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director-General says government have picked lessons from this episode and are now more open to easing restrictions.

“The recovery in air travel continued in January, despite hitting a speed bump called Omicron. Strengthened border controls did not stop the spread of the variant. But where population immunity was strong, the public health systems were not overwhelmed. Many governments are now adjusting Covid-19 polices to align with those for other endemic viruses. This includes lifting travel restrictions that have had such a devastating impact on lives, economies and the freedom to travel,” Walsh says.

Overall, demand for air travel was up 82.3 percent compared to January 2021 although that number was 4.9 percent below December 2021 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

On the opposite end, African airline’ traffic rose just 17.9 percent year on year during the reference period, which was lower than the 26.3 percent annual increase recorded in December 2021. The region’s airlines boosted capacity by 6.3 percent over the period while the load factor improved by 6 percent reach to 60.5 percent.

Cautious optimism

IATA cautions that while January 2022 saw strong growth in traffic compared to the preceding year, passenger demand was far below pre-Covid-19 levels. Total RPKs in January were at 49.6 percent of January 2019 levels with international traffic down 62.4percent and domestic traffic off the mark by 26.5 percent.

The Middle East, a key connector for Africa saw demand rise 145.percent year on year in January compared with January 2021, although that was still below 178.2 percent witnessed in December 2021, compared with the same period in 2020. January capacity rose 71.7 relative to the comparable period for 2021 with load factor inching up 17.5 percentage points to reach 58.6perecent.

The figures for January do not cover any impacts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict because it began at the end of February. According to IATA, the Ukraine market accounted for 3.3 percent of European passenger traffic and 0.8 percent of global traffic in 2021 while Russia’s international market represented 5.7 percent of European traffic excluding the Russia domestic market and 1.3 percent of global traffic.

Operational cost factor

However, the resulting sanctions and airspace closures are expected to affect travel, especially among countries neighbouring Russia and Ukraine. The airspace closures have forced the rerouting or cancellations of flights on some routes, mostly in the Europe-Asia and the Asia-North America market.

The airline lobby, however, observes that in addition to disruptions caused by the Ukraine conflict, the resulting spike in fuel prices is adding pressure on airline costs and will negatively impact the loss position. The airline industry was expected to accumulate a loss of $201 billion between 2020 and 2022.

“When we made our most recent industry financial forecast last autumn, we expected the airline industry to lose $11.6 billion in 2022 with jet fuel at $78/barrel and fuel accounting for 20 percent of costs. As of March 4, jet fuel is trading at over $140/barrel. Absorbing such a massive hit on costs just as the industry is struggling to cut losses as it emerges from the two-year Covid-19 crisis is a huge challenge. If jet fuel prices stay that high, then over time, it is reasonable to expect that it will be reflected in airline yields,” said Walsh.

Supply chain restoration

On the upside, many governments are removing or relaxing their Covid-19 travel protocols as a growing body of evidence suggests that airline passenger do not pose a greater than average risk of transmitting the disease. For instance, Singapore has introduced vaccinated lanes at its airports allowing vaccinated travellers to transit faster.

“The past few weeks have seen a dramatic shift by many governments around the world to ease or remove Covid-19-related travel restrictions and requirements as the disease enters its endemic phase. It is vital that this process continue and even accelerate, to more quickly restore damaged global supply chains and enable people to resume their lives,” says Walsh.

Walsh adds that one step that could speed up a return to normalcy would be to remove mask mandates for air travel.

“It makes no sense to continue to require masks on airplanes when they are no longer being required in shopping malls, theatres or offices. Aircraft are equipped with highly sophisticated hospital quality filtration systems and have much higher air flow and air exchange rates than most other indoor environments where mask mandates already have been removed,” said Walsh.

Year-on-year, domestic air travel was up 41.5 percent during the month but down 7.2 percent compared with December 2021 on a seasonally adjusted basis. International revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) rose 165.6 percent compared to January 2021 but slipped by 2.2 percent between December 2021 and January 2022.

European airlines saw the most growth during January, with international traffic increasing by 225.1 percent over the comparable period for 2021. That growth was achieved on a 129.9 percent increase in capacity while the load factor climbed 19.4 percentage points to 66.4 percent.

The bullish outlook is informed by the easing of travel restrictions in key markets as Covid-19 vaccinations reach optimal levels and infection rates recede. But the gains will not be evenly distributed with the business expected to recover at a slower pace in Africa, which has vaccinated fewer people against Covid.

Despite the global easing, African operators face mixed prospects, boxed in by low Covid-19 vaccination rates and a smaller domestic market. That is likely to limit the number of people who can travel within the region and beyond.

Source: The East African