The travel industry has faced new restrictions, canceled trips, destination closures and job losses over the past year. What can we expect in 2022?

CBS News senior travel adviser Peter Greenberg shares his expectations and how travelers should prepare.

Flight prices will drop in January

After January 4, air traffic historically drops, so prices will likely be lower than they are now, Greenberg said.  

“If I wanted to book a round-trip ticket this morning from New York to Los Angeles, assuming I could even get on a plane, that round-trip fare is $700. January 5: $132,” he said Tuesday on “CBS Mornings.” “I also priced out a Dallas to New York trip on January 5. It was $32. The cab ride to the airport is more expensive.”

Airlines won’t mandate vaccines on their own

While some airline CEOs support a vaccine mandate for travelers, none of them want to be the only airline to implement it, Greenberg said.

“They’re waiting for the Biden administration to make that rule,” he said. “[The administration’s] not about to make that rule right now because their other vaccination mandate is being challenged in the courts, all the way up to the Supreme Court. So, until that’s resolved, it’s dead on arrival.”

Airline miles will lose value

During the pandemic, companies realized their frequent flyer programs were worth more than the airlines themselves, Greenberg said.

“They actually mortgaged their programs from between $6 and $10 billion each airline. That’s a lot of debt,” he said. 

To deal with that debt, the airlines will start to devalue frequent flyer miles and make it harder to earn and redeem them, he said. So, if you have a lot of miles, Greenberg recommends using them as soon as possible.

“Start today. Look out about 330 days, as far out as that, and redeem miles as much as you can because starting in January, that devaluation parade is going to start and it’s not going to be pretty,” he said.

Hotel rates could be negotiable 

Expect to pay more for hotels in the next year. But if you’re willing to make a phone call, rather than book online, you may be able to negotiate the rate, Greenberg said. 

“It’s not the posted rate that counts, it’s all the ancillary rates about whether you’re going to have to pay for the water, or the Wi-Fi, or the parking,” he said, adding, “as more hotels open with the same continuing staff shortages, it’s going to be a much more competitive marketplace. They’ll be much more willing to negotiate because any revenue is better than no revenue.”

Restaurants will raise prices

“Expect to pay more for your menu,” Greenberg said. “Every menu item price is going up, and a lot of things that never used to be on the menu as a charged item — they’re going to be on that.”

This is because many restaurants have been facing staffing issues that are expected to continue. They’ll have to incentivize workers with higher wages, perks and benefits, Greenberg said.

“That’s going to all translate into higher menu prices, not just on the entrees, but what used to come on your dish is now going to be charged as a side order. Even the bread basket is going to be a paid item.”

Source: CBS News

Asia will reopen to travel as more is learned about the Omicron variant, with the recent tightening of borders only a “temporary speed bump” on the road to recovery, according to a top airline industry representative.

In an exclusive interview, Philip Goh, regional head of the International Air Transport Association, told Al Jazeera he was optimistic about the resumption of travel in Asia in 2022 despite the region’s doubling down on travel restrictions in response to the variant.

“People miss travel and they want to travel. You cannot substitute a hug, a handshake with a virtual zoom call,” Goh said. “Nor can videos capture and invigorate the senses stimulated by the sights, sounds and scents of the places we travel to.”

Goh, IATA vice president for Asia-Pacific, said governments in the region that had banked on isolation to control COVID-19 more than any other part of the world would ultimately reopen because “their citizens want to travel and are asking for it”.

“They also understand the need for economies dependent on global commerce and trade to re-establish trade lanes and to allow connectivity to again flourish,” Goh said.

“This is a temporary set-back,” added Goh, who attributed Asia’s strict border policies to the “risk adverse nature of the region and memories of the SARS pandemic in 2003”.

“We are optimistic that plans to restart international travel will resume when more is learnt about Omicron.”

Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand have reintroduced tough travel curbs in response to Omicron, while mainland China, Hong Kong and New Zealand have doubled down on existing ultra-strict border controls.

The region’s deepening isolation comes as countries such as the United States, Australia and Canada ease testing and isolation rules amid growing acknowledgement that efforts to tightly control the spread of the highly transmissible Omicron strain have become too disruptive to everyday life.

Although Omicron is believed to be two to three times more transmissible than the Delta variant, the coronavirus strain has been associated with milder illness.

In a study published in The Lancet on Wednesday, South African researchers found that just 4.9 percent of cases during the most recent wave in the province of Gauteng were hospitalised, compared with 18.9 percent during the second wave. The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, also found that patients were 73 percent less likely to have severe disease than those admitted during the country’s third wave, which was dominated by the Delta variant.

On Thursday, the South African government announced that its Omicron wave had peaked with no significant uptick in deaths. In the UK, where the daily number of COVID-19 cases is still breaking records, the number of patients in ventilation beds is less than one-quarter of their peak in January.

Even before the variant’s arrival, the Asia-Pacific had yet to see any meaningful rebound in travel. Air traffic in the region was down 92.8 percent in October compared with October 2019, according to IATA data. By comparison, travel in North America and Europe was down just 57 percent and 50.6 percent, respectively, in the same period.

‘Desire to travel’

While credited with reducing deaths from COVID-19, the region’s isolation has decimated travel-reliant industries such as tourism, separated families, upended plans for study, work and migration, and disrupted supply chains.

Earlier this month, IATA Director General Willie Walsh criticised governments that introduced travel bans in response to Omicron for “putting at risk the global connectivity it has taken so long to rebuild”.

In November, the IATA released a blueprint for restarting international travel that called on authorities to adopt “simple, consistent, and predictable” measures. The proposals included removing all hurdles for vaccinated travellers and allowing quarantine-free travel for passengers who are not vaccinated but have a negative antigen test result.

Goh said the effective shutdown of the region’s aviation had highlighted the “immense importance of aviation in our lives, which is often taken for granted”.

“People have missed not being able to connect with friends and family. People feel worse-off in terms of life experiences gained through exploring new cultures or obtaining an overseas education,” he said. “The fact that travel bookings surged whenever border reopening is announced reveal the desire to travel.”

Goh said there was a need for more balanced discussion about the costs of fighting COVID-19.

“That’s why we need governments to look at reopening borders, allowing the free flow of air travel without quarantine by treating COVID-19 as an endemic disease and managing it through testing and vaccination,” he said.

Source: AL JAZEERA

United Arab Emirates (UAE) has extended the ban on Kenyan travelling to its territory indefinitely, restricting inbound flights from Nairobi and a host of other African countries.

In a notice, Emirates Airlines announced that it has extended the ban, which was to end on the eve of Christmas, until further notice.

The Dubai Civil Aviation Authority (DCAA) had announced a 48-hour suspension on all flights from Kenya to the Middle East nation on December 20, but on Wednesday, the Dubai-based carrier said that it has, in turn, extended its flights from Kenya suspension to comply with the directive that was to end on December 24.

“Until further notice, flights to and from Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda are suspended. Passengers who have been in or transited through these countries in the last 14 days will not be allowed to enter or transit through Dubai,” said the notice from the airline.

The move is the latest restriction on global travel by UAE aimed at limiting the spread of Covid-19 in the wake of the new Omicron variant.

The directive comes as a blow to the national carrier Kenya Airways, which had seen an increase in bookings on this route occasioned by the ongoing Dubai Expo 2020 exhibition.

Kenya Airways suspended passenger flights to Dubai on Tuesday last week in line with the directive.

The national carrier said it would refund passengers who had booked tickets for travel within the suspension period. The travellers will also be allowed to rebook when flights resume.

The suspension came days after Dubai introduced new travel requirements for direct flights from Nigeria, Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia.

Under the new measures, travellers from Africa were required to provide a PCR test result conducted at the airport six hours before departure for Dubai.

In addition, travellers were to self-quarantine until they received a negative Covid-19 test certificate issued within 48 hours of arrival in Dubai.

Kenya has seen coronavirus resurgence with a rapidly rising caseload since confirmation of the highly infectious Omicron variant last week.

The positivity rate — the ratio of positive tests — rose to 34 percent on Wednesday, which is among the highest levels since Kenya recorded the first coronavirus case on March 12 last year.

The surge in global coronavirus infections has seen many countries tighten restrictions to curb the spread of the Omicron variant.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) labels a country to be a high risk if the positivity rate rises above five percent and advises countries to consider restrictions if it remains above the limit for at least 14 days.

Source: Business Daily