Africa’s aviation market is proving more resilient than its modest global share would suggest, with domestic and intra-African travel continuing to provide an important foundation for passenger growth even as airlines contend with high operating costs, fuel-price volatility and limited connectivity.
The latest data from the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) shows just how important domestic travel has become. During the second half of 2025, Africa’s top 100 domestic routes carried 13.4 million passengers, compared with 9.3 million on the continent’s top international routes and 4.1 million on intra-African routes.
The figures point to a market increasingly driven by Africans travelling within their own countries, rather than relying solely on international traffic.
The busiest route was Cape Town-Johannesburg, which carried almost 1.99 million passengers between July and December 2025. Durban-Johannesburg followed with 1.39 million passengers, highlighting the scale of demand on established domestic corridors.
The trend is continuing into 2026. OAG data for July shows total African airline capacity at 26.3 million seats, up 7.5 per cent from the same month last year. Domestic capacity increased by a stronger 11.1 per cent, while international capacity grew 6.6 per cent.
Nigeria recorded the sharpest expansion among the leading country markets, with total capacity up 44.5 per cent year-on-year to 1.22 million seats. Tanzania’s capacity increased 10.5 per cent, while Ethiopia grew 10.3 per cent. Kenya, however, recorded a 1.6 per cent decline in total capacity in July.
Domestic aviation is particularly important because it provides airlines with a market less exposed to some of the shocks affecting international travel.
Africa continues to face high fuel costs, foreign-exchange constraints, aircraft shortages and expensive operating environments. IATA expects African passenger traffic to grow by about 6 per cent in 2026, ahead of the global growth rate, but forecasts African airlines will collectively make only about US$200 million in net profit, equivalent to a margin of roughly 1 per cent.
The combination of strong demand and weak profitability remains one of the industry’s central contradictions.
Airlines have passengers to carry, but converting that demand into sustainable returns remains difficult.
For travel agents, however, the growth of domestic and regional aviation presents an expanding market.
Domestic flying connects the major commercial centres with tourism destinations, creating opportunities to package air travel with accommodation, ground transport and experiences. The growth of regional connectivity also creates scope for multi-country itineraries as travellers increasingly combine business, leisure and family trips across African markets.
This is particularly relevant to East Africa, where aviation and tourism are closely intertwined.
Kenya remains one of the continent’s important aviation markets. ATTA’s 2026 aviation outlook forecasts 10.2 million seats for Kenya during the first 10 months of the year, representing a 22.3 per cent increase from the comparable period in 2025. Eastern Africa’s overall capacity is projected to rise 24.3 per cent, making it the fastest-growing African sub-region in the report.
That expansion gives travel businesses more inventory around which to build products, although the actual benefit will depend on whether additional capacity translates into affordable fares and useful connections.
The biggest structural problem remains connectivity.
Africa is a vast continent, yet many neighbouring countries have no direct air links. Travellers can sometimes spend considerably longer connecting through major hubs than they would spend flying the actual distance between their origin and destination.
This remains a major constraint on intra-African trade and tourism, particularly in Central and parts of West Africa.
The Single African Air Transport Market initiative is intended to address some of these barriers by liberalising air services and improving connectivity between African states. Progress, however, remains uneven.
For airlines, the prize is significant.
Boeing estimates that African passenger traffic could grow by 7.4 per cent annually over the next two decades, with intra-African passenger traffic more than quadrupling during that period. It forecasts demand for 1,025 new commercial aircraft to support the expansion.
The long-term opportunity therefore lies not only in connecting Africa to Europe, Asia or the Middle East, but in connecting Africa to itself.
That shift could change the role of travel agents as well. As African aviation networks become more complex, customers will increasingly need help combining multiple airlines, destinations and travel products. Agents that understand regional schedules, fare structures, accommodation and ground logistics can turn fragmented connectivity into complete itineraries.
The market is not without risks. Rising fuel prices can quickly alter airline economics, while geopolitical disruptions can force carriers to reroute or reduce services. In 2026, African airlines have also faced pressure from higher fuel and supply costs linked to instability around key international air corridors.
Yet passenger demand continues to expand.
That resilience is perhaps the most important signal from the market.
Africa’s aviation story is no longer simply about waiting for international traffic to mature. Millions of passengers are already flying between African cities, and domestic routes are carrying the largest volumes.
For airlines and travel businesses, the opportunity is increasingly inside the continent.
The challenge is to make that movement cheaper, more direct and commercially sustainable.
If Africa can close its connectivity gaps while maintaining the demand now emerging across domestic and regional markets, the continent’s next aviation growth story may be less about flying Africans out of the continent — and more about helping them fly across it.
Source: aerospaceglobalnews.com
