Global air passenger demand recorded a strong increase in February, reflecting continued recovery and resilience in the aviation sector, even as geopolitical tensions begin to weigh on costs and capacity.
Data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows that global passenger demand rose by 6.1% year-on-year in February, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK). Airline capacity also expanded by 5.6%, while the average load factor reached a record 81.4% for the month.
International and Domestic Growth
International travel demand increased by 5.9%, supported by improved connectivity and seasonal travel patterns, while domestic markets grew slightly faster at 6.3% compared to the same period last year.
Growth was particularly strong in regions benefiting from seasonal travel demand, including Asia-Pacific, where traffic rose significantly due to Lunar New Year travel. Latin America also posted robust gains, emerging as one of the fastest-growing regions globally.
Africa Leads Regional Growth
African airlines recorded the strongest global growth rate in February at 11.9% year-on-year, highlighting the continent’s accelerating recovery and rising demand for air connectivity.
This builds on earlier trends showing Africa as one of the fastest-expanding aviation markets, supported by increasing regional travel and improving load factors.
However, despite strong demand, the region continues to face structural challenges, including limited capacity and high operational costs.
Uneven Regional Performance
While most regions posted steady growth, the Middle East lagged behind with minimal expansion, reflecting disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions and airspace restrictions.
European and North American carriers reported moderate increases of around 5%, indicating stable but slower growth compared to emerging markets.
Rising Costs and Uncertainty
Despite positive demand trends, the aviation sector faces mounting uncertainty. Rising fuel costs—driven in part by conflict in the Middle East—are beginning to impact airline operations and ticket prices.
Capacity growth projections have already been revised downward, with airlines adjusting schedules and routes, particularly on services linked to affected regions.
In Africa, the situation is particularly acute. Many countries rely heavily on imported jet fuel, and recent supply disruptions have pushed fuel costs significantly higher, placing additional pressure on airlines and potentially leading to higher fares and reduced capacity.
Industry data suggests that demand fundamentals remain strong, with passenger numbers expected to continue growing through 2026. However, ongoing geopolitical risks and cost pressures could moderate growth in the months ahead.
Airlines are expected to balance strong demand with cautious capacity expansion as they navigate an increasingly uncertain operating environment.
Source ; businesstravelnewseurope.com
